A year on, Somalia is keen to wrap up ‘all-out’ offensive against Al-Shabaab in Galmudug
It has been a year since the first phase of the “all-out” offensive against Al-Shabaab commenced in Somalia’s central regions. With the support of aggrieved local clan militias known as macawiisley, the Somali army was able to liberate vast territories from Al-Shabaab militants in areas under Hirshabelle and Galmudug states, in what was the first phase of the offensive.
However, while Hirshabelle is now considered largely liberated, the same cannot be said for Galmudug as some parts of the regional state are still under Al-Shabaab.
As such, the second phase of the offensive dubbed “Operation Black Lion”, which is to focus on expelling Al-Shabaab from the states of Jubaland and Southwest, will not start anytime soon.
In May, President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud made it clear during a televised question-and-answer session that the Black Lion operation, which will include the regional forces of Djibouti, Ethiopia and Kenya that border Somalia, will only start after the first phase is completed.
Although Mohamud promised at the time that phase one has entered the “final stages”, the situation on the ground suggests that more must be done to finalize the offensive.
This explains reports of Mohamud’s planned visit to Galmudug this month where he is expected to stay for weeks to closely supervise the operations.
Unprecedented success
The current administration’s biggest achievement was to make a daring move to take the war to Al-Shabaab in territories they have grown too comfortable controlling and terrorizing its residents.
In Galmudug, much of the success has been on the coastal side where key towns such as Harardhere, Gal’ad, El Dheer, and Masagaway have been liberated.
Once a base for Somali pirates, Harardhere liberation represents a major success for the government. The town has been under Al-Shabaab since 2011 and the group has used it to generate revenue from taxing imported goods, but also used to it import weapons.
For years, Al-Shabaab held major secret meetings in towns across Galmudug and recruited hundreds of fighters including children to bolster their forces.
Galmudug is also strategically located linking Somalia’s northern and southern regions. The cleansing of Al-Shabaab from these territories, hence, opens doors to enhanced development and trade in the region.
In other words, the offensive has proved that Al-Shabaab is mortal.
Stalled operations
Despite the successes, the war against Al-Shabaab in Galmudug is far from over. The group remains undefeated and has moved to other hideouts in areas bordering Middle Shabelle region.
Meanwhile, government-led operations have stalled for several reasons and analysts fear that the Al-Qaeda linked group will get the chance to regroup and launch a comeback.
The offensive was initially launched in a haphazard manner without proper preparation as the government was keen to capitalize on the revolt by clans against Al-Shabaab in central regions.
Although short in numbers, the Somali security forces, allied vigilantes, and local federal state forces moved rapidly in their liberation spree causing rampant fatigue among the forces as well as creating major challenges in terms of holding captured towns.
Moreover, the combined forces have suffered heavy casualties despite the largely successful offensive. This has not only raised urgency to replenish the depleted forces, but also necessitated the need to reenergize and motivate them.
The distance between liberated areas was also too wide and the terrain too difficult especially with heavy rains between March and June creating major logistical challenges for the offensive.
In terms of weapons, arms and ammunition, the government’s efforts to have the arms embargo imposed on Somalia since 1992 by United Nations Security Council (UNSC) lifted have not been successful, thus hindering Somalia’s ability to purchase heavy weapons to effectively combat Africa’s deadliest terror organization.
In terms of command of operations, there have been reports of rift between the army and macawiisley in Galmudug over the ownership and leadership of the offensive.
Other potential concerns include potential land disputes between macawiisley representing the interests of different clans. Such fears are not farfetched as renewed clan tensions have been recorded in Hirshabelle in areas liberated from Al-Shabaab.
While the army is the legitimate leader of the operations, the social contract in Somalia is very weak and fragile, and clans do not necessarily recognize the army’s authority and leadership especially when priorities and interests clash.
Time to reset
President Mohamud’s to visit and stay for considerable time in Galmudug is aimed at resetting the offensive in the regional state.
He is likely to operate from Dhusomareb, the regional capital, from where he will be expected to personally supervise the offensive and come up with new war strategies especially considering that Al-Shabaab does not normally engage in conventional wars.
The move is considered critical in giving Mohamud a command base from where he can engage in talks with clans to address any concerns and mobilize more macawiisley fighters to finalize the offensive.
Analysts are worried that if the concerns of the clan militias are ignored, they might partner with Al-Shabaab against the government. The group has been approaching various clans through carrots and sticks to abandon their support for the government.
The president’s presence in the region will also serve to unite the clans against their common as well as motivate the army in these critical times.
Reports also suggest that the government is set to send over 10,000 recently graduated soldiers to frontlines in Galmudug to bolster the offensive operations.
As the commander-in-chief, Mohamud also expected to lobby for more international support be it air support, intelligence, weapons and ammunition, and emergency medical aid among others.
All eyes in Somalia are now on President Mohamud as his citizens will judge him by his success in delivering his promise of liberating Somalia from Al-Shabaab. As it stands, he seems committed to achieving that.
Whether he is successful or not, only time will tell.
