Election deadlock may push Somaliland towards uncertainty

In recent years, Somalia’s breakaway region of Somaliland has been hailed as a beacon of democracy in the Horn of Africa region. Although internationally not recognised, Somaliland has been largely stable since the 1990s when Somalia’s south and central regions were marred with civil war and terrorism. 

However, the postponement of the presidential election to next year instead of November 13 when the incumbent president’s term ends, has triggered mass protests across the region risking its sliding into turmoil. Ensuing clashes between security forces and opposition protesters left at least five dead and dozens injured. 

President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud swiftly called on Somaliland ruling party Kulmiye and opposition leaders to settle their differences through dialogue to preserve the region’s stability.

Meanwhile, sporadic protests have continued. 

What caused the delay?

In September, the Somaliland National Electoral Commission said holding elections on 13 November as previously scheduled was not “viable” citing “technical and financial constraints.” 

However, the International Crisis Group (ICG) said in its recent policy brief that the main issue of contention between Somaliland’s president Muse Bihi and the opposition relates to the timing of election. 

While Bihi and his Kulmiye party want political parties’ election to precede the presidential vote, the opposition Waddani and UCID parties (the two main opposition parties) insist the presidential election should be held first. Both sides believe it is not favored by the preference of the other. 

According to ICG, the current election timing crisis was caused by “a cascade of postponements and ad hoc scheduling decisions” in the past. 

What is at stake?

Both leaders of Waddani and UCID said in a statement late on Sunday they will no longer recognise Bihi as the territory’s president after he extended his term.

“The mandate of the current president Bihi has ended today after he had failed to hold an election,” the statement read. “Starting from today, we don’t recognize the legitimacy of the president and his government,” it added

Both Somali leaders and international partners are keen to see the crisis in Somaliland resolved. 

President Mohamud called on the Guurti (the upper house of the Parliament of Somaliland) as well as traditional and religious leaders to internally resolve the ongoing crisis and avoid the need for foreign intervention. 

But the Guurti has lost credibility in the eyes of the opposition for siding with Bihi after extending the government’s mandate by two years (November 2024). 

Meanwhile, like other parts of Somalia, Somaliland is experiencing a devastating drought. The political crisis risks prolonged protests and the suspension of international funding, both of which will bare heavily on the already suffering citizens.

ICG has also warned that a distracted Somaliland government may allow Al-Shabaab terrorists to infiltrate Somaliland’s eastern Sanaag region. This is quite alarming especially as the group is losing ground in south and central Somalia amid an “all-out-war” by Mohamud administration.  

Preserving peace

ICG has also stated a winner-take-all mentality, sub-clan rivalries, and foreign investment, as key factors behind the failure of compromise among Somaliland’s leaders.

Hence, leaders in Somaliland should compromise and prioritise peace to preserve the region’s status as a beacon of peace, democracy, and stability. 

Business leaders, traditional elders, and civil society organisations should put concerted efforts to mediate between the disputing sides to reach a compromise for elections.

International partners can also play a crucial role by providing the electoral commission with the necessary technical and financial support to hold the elections.