Somalia’s South West state braces for offensive against Al-Shabaab

On Nov. 23, Somalia’s Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre stated that since the formation of his government, the Somali National Army (SNA) – with the support of clan militias popularly known as Macawiisley – has killed more than 600 Al-Shabaab militants and wounded 1,200 others.

Barre also added that 68 areas were liberated from the terror group in Somalia’s central and southern regions. 

Last Monday, the Somali army and allied local militias known as Macawiisley captured the strategically locate Adan Yabaal town in Middle Shabelle region, the latest in a string of towns liberated from the extremist group.

However, most of the gains have been made in the states of Hirshabelle and Galmudug. 

Reports are emerging that South West state is set to follow suit to mobilize its troops and rally its own Macawiisley to wage an offensive against Al-Shabaab controlled areas. 

On Nov. 19, the Speaker of the Lower House of the Federal Parliament of Somalia Adan Mohamed Nuur aka Madobe issued a statement calling on South West leaders, politicians and community elders to convene for a reconciliation conference to iron out differences before joining the ongoing offensive against Al-Shabaab.

Meanwhile, Al-Shabaab has retaliated by intensifying its attacks in the capital Mogadishu, the latest being Sunday attack on Villa Rays hotel that killed at least 10 people. 

Al-Shabaab’s influence in South West state

Since his re-election, President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has vowed an “all-out war” against Al-Shabaab terrorists that involves fighting the group in the military, ideological, and economic domains. 

So far, the focus of Mohamud’s strategy has been on Hirshabelle and Galmudug states and the president has in recent days traveled to several frontlines in both states to boost the army’s morale.

There are calls to widen the offensive to include South West and Jubbaland states where Al-Shabaab wields immense influence.

Speaking to Somali Signal, Somalia’s former defense minister Abdirashid Abdullahi Mohamed said Al-Shabaab exercises influence in South West state through blending both hard and soft power tools to maintain and advance its influence in the state.

“Al-Shabaab enjoys almost uninterrupted mobility within South West effectively imposing a siege on three of its biggest towns: Baidoa, Burahakaba and Bardale,” Mohamed, who hails from South West state, said.

He noted that the terror group has erected a strategic checkpoint between Leego and Jameeco villages that are located along the road that connects the towns of Wanlaweyn and Burhakaba located in Lower Shabelle and Bay regions respectively. 

“This checkpoint is the same juncture that connects the movement of Al-Shabaab from the Juba regions [Lower Juba and Middle Juba in southern Somalia] to the central regions,” the minister noted. 

He added that through the laying of sieges and erecting of checkpoints, Al-Shabaab is able to impose hefty taxes on trucks collecting approximately $30,000 per month. 

“Moreover”, he continued, “the group has many sympathizers and is able to recruit fighters extensively through the use of carrots and sticks.”

When asked to explain, the minister stated that besides promise of salary to recruit unemployed youth to their ranks, the terror group forces clan elders to provide new fighters every six to eight months.

“This has caused mass displacements of residents in South West to various parts of the country and across the border as many escape forced conscription,” Mohamed said. 

He also noted that unlike the state government, the group has effective courts that are mobile, reliable, and capable of delivering justice. 

Overstretching Al-Shabaab

As a former defense minister who is well-versed with military tactics, Mohamed believes opening a new front against Al-Shabaab terrorists in South West state will “overstretch” the group.

“This will limit their movement and deny them hideouts and safe havens,” he said. 

Mohamed also hailed the “bottom-up” nature of the offensive which started with aggrieved clan militias who, fed up with Al-Shabaab abuses, decided to take up arms and liberate their towns and were then supported by the government. 

According to Mohamed, this “makes the offensive more sustainable and should be replicated in South West state”. 

He added, “For instance, tens of thousands of dollars were collected by residents in Hirshabelle state including from their kinsmen in the diaspora to support the war. Those in South West can emulate this example.”

Reconciliation first

While supporting calls for massive offensive against Al-Shabaab in South West, Mohamed warned against its implementation before a genuine reconciliation between South West’s stakeholders to resolve “outstanding issues” takes place.

The former minister stated “illegal” elections that brought to state’s presidency Abdiaziz Hassan Mohamed aka Laftagareen, the forceful arrest of former Al-Shabaab deputy commander now turned Somalia’s religious affairs minister Mukhtar Robow, and the killing of at least 11 protesters in the ensuing clashes, as some of the factors that have caused deep fractures among leaders in South West.

Mohamed also accused Laftagareen of not inviting aggrieved parties towards reconciliation after his election and believes that the economic and security situation in the state has worsened under his leadership. 

“To make matters worse, he [Laftagareen] orchestrated a one-year illegal extension to his term which was set to expire next year,” Mohamed said. 

Therefore, according to Mohamed, a genuine grand reconciliation that will bring all South West stakeholders as called for by Madobe is inevitable before any major offensive operations in the state. 

“Without reconciliation, we cannot expect clans in South West to be on the same page in the fight against Al-Shabaab,” Mohammed warned.